Operation MGT
Bulldog Beer Company forecasts its monthly shipments of beer in terms of barrels. Guy Smarty, their forecaster, is thinking of switching from using management's forecasts to either a 2-month moving average or an exponential smoothing method with ?=0.2. He produced the following table of forecasts and absolute percent forecast errors that would have been generated for the last 6 months of 2008.
a. What is the 2-month Moving Average forecast for January 2009 beer shipments?
b. What was the Exponential Smoothing forecast for October 2008 shipments?
c. What was the 2-month Moving Average Forecast's Absolute Percent Error for October 2008?
d. The MAPE of forecast errors from July to December for each type of forecast are shown below:
Which forecast should Guy use? Why?
Bulldog Beer Company forecasts its monthly shipments of beer in terms of barrels. Guy Smarty, their forecaster, is thinking of switching from using management's forecasts to either a 2-month moving average or an exponential smoothing method with ?=0.2. He produced the following table of forecasts and absolute percent forecast errors that would have been generated for the last 6 months of 2008.
a. What is the 2-month Moving Average forecast for January 2009 beer shipments?
b. What was the Exponential Smoothing forecast for October 2008 shipments?
c. What was the 2-month Moving Average Forecast's Absolute Percent Error for October 2008?
d. The MAPE of forecast errors from July to December for each type of forecast are shown below:
Which forecast should Guy use? Why?
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