MA270 Statistical Analysis II

MA270 Statistical Analysis II

Directions: Sources must be cited in APA format. Your response should be a minimum of (1) single-spaced page to a maximum of (2) pages in length; refer to the "Assignment Format" page for specific format requirements.

1. Briefly advise each of the following two (2) people on specific research studies that he or she might find useful. For each person, propose a reporting, descriptive, explanatory, and predictive study.
a. Manager of a full-service restaurant with high employee turnover (the management decision problem is known)
b. Director of Big Brothers/Big Sisters in charge of sponsor recruiting (the management decision problem has not yet been specified)
2. Distinguish between the items in the following sets and describe the significance of each in a research context:
a. Concept and construct
b. Deduction and induction

c. Concept and variable
d. Hypothesis and proposition
e. Theory and model

ASSIGNMENT 08
MA270 Statistical Analysis II

Directions: Sources must be cited in APA format. Your response should be a minimum of (1) single-spaced page to a maximum of (2) pages in length; refer to the "Assignment Format" page for specific format requirements.

1. The quarterly production of pine lumber, in millions of board feet, by Northwest Lumber since 1996 is shown in the following table:
Quarter
Year Winter Spring Summer Fall
1996 7.8 10.2 14.7 9.3
1997 6.9 11.6 17.5 9.3
1998 8.9 9.7 15.3 10.1
1999 10.7 12.4 16.8 10.7
2000 9.2 13.6 17.1 10.3

a. Determine the typical seasonal pattern for the production data using the ratio-to-moving average method.
b. Interpret the pattern.
c. Deseasonalize the data and determine the linear trend equation.
d. Project the seasonally adjusted production for the four quarters of 2001.

2. Sales of roof material, by quarter, since 1994 for Carolina Home Construction, Inc. are shown below (in $000):
Quarter
Year I II III IV
1994 210 180 60 246
1995 214 216 82 230
1996 246 228 91 280
1997 258 250 113 298
1998 279 267 116 304
1999 302 290 114 310
2000 321 291 120 320

a. Determine the typical seasonal patterns for sales using the ratio-to-moving average method.
b. Deseasonalize the data and determine the trend equation.
c. Project the sales for 2001, and then seasonally adjust each quarter.

3. The following is the number of retirees receiving benefits from the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio from 1991 until 2000:
Year Service Year Service Year Service
1991 58,436 1995 67,989 1999 78,341
1992 59,994 1996 70,448 2000 81,111
1993 61,515 1997 72,601
1994 63,182 1998 75,482

a. Determine the least squares trend equation. Use a linear equation.
b. Estimate the number of retirees that will be receiving benefits in 2003. Does this seem like a reasonable estimate based on the historical data?
c. By how much has the number of retirees increased or decreased (per year) on average during the period?