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Friday, February 5, 2016

Introduction:The following task, in which you are asked to conduct a small number of simulation trials

 February 05, 2016     No comments   

Introduction:The following task, in which you are asked to conduct a small number of simulation trials, should be done with manual calculations. Please be aware that the simulation results of such a small number of trials would not be sufficient for one to draw valid conclusions in a real situation. A large number of trials run on a computer would be necessary in order to arrive at a valid conclusion.Random numbers are provided in the attached template; these numbers are discrete, uniform, and between 1 and 100 inclusive.Given:Management has asked you to help estimate the average cost per unit to produce a new product so that they can project profits at different selling prices. You will conduct a Monte Carlo simulation for cost behavior using provided probabilistic data for the following cost estimates. Cost per unit for materials, labor, and utilities and their probability distributions are provided in the attached worksheet. In your calculations, round to the nearest cent.

Materials:

The probability is .18 that the cost will be $33.

The probability is .23 that the cost will be $35.

The probability is .32 that the cost will be $38.

The probability is .27 that the cost will be $39.

Labor:

The probability is .12 that the cost will be $22.

The probability is .18 that the cost will be $23.

The probability is .22 that the cost will be $24.

The probability is .28 that the cost will be $25.

The probability is .20 that the cost will be $28.

Utilities:

The probability is .26 that the cost will be $3.

The probability is .43 that the cost will be $4.

The probability is .31 that the cost will be $6.


Task:


A. Complete the attached "Simulation Template" to determine the following costs

(responses should include two decimal places):

1. Average materials cost per unit

2. Average labor cost per unit

3. Average utilities cost per unit

4. Average total cost per unit


Note: Run 10 trials using the random numbers that are provided on the "Simulation Template" for each probability distribution. Use the random numbers in the exact sequence that they appear on the template for each cost.


Note: Submit your completed spreadsheet as an attachment to this task.


B. Determine the selling price per unit that should be established for this product using your simulation results and assuming that the company wants to realize an average markup of $20 on each unit sold.

C. When you use sources, include all in-text citations and references in APA format.


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