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Friday, February 12, 2016

European consumer confidence

 February 12, 2016     No comments   

European consumer confidence
You work for a large consulting company out of its Nicosia office. You have been assigned the task of creating a summary report on the most recent Eurostat European Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI). In particular, an important American client has requested the report, after having read a brief summary report produced by the Pew Research Center in the U.S. (attached). The client needs more detailed information on the European CCI, and has asked for a summary report that focuses on consumer confidence in Cyprus and Greece, in comparison to that in the UK and Europe overall. Your client is in retail, and although he has not disclosed much information about his operations, you know that he has little experience thus far in European markets.
Your supervisor has provided you with the attached Excel file (as well as CSV file), containing the monthly Consumer Confidence Indicator (CONS in the dataset) over the last 10 years (from January 2004 to November 2014) for five regions: Europe (EU), the Euro area (EA), Greece (EL), Cyprus (CY) and the United Kingdom (UK). While more detail can be found below in the additional documentation, CONS quantifies the level of confidence consumers have in the economy and ranges from -100 to 100.
Your analysis and report should cover the following:
1. Overview of the data set (3 pages)
Purpose of the study (half page)
Data collection method (half page)
Variable(s) in the dataset and measurement scales (1 page)
2. Descriptive statistics (3 pages)
Over all quarters during the past 10 years, how confident are consumers in each of the five regions? Be sure to characterize both the central tendency and the dispersion in the CONS variable.
Using a graphical method, compare the trends over time in consumer confidence across the five regions.
3. Inferential statistics (6 pages)
Provide a 99% confidence interval for the mean consumer confidence index in Cyprus, for the years 2004-2014.
Test the following hypothesis at a significance level of 0.01: The mean level of consumer confidence in Cyprus over the past 10 years is less than that of the EU as a whole. Assume that the sample mean consumer confidence in the EU is equal to the true population mean.
Test the following hypothesis at a significance level of 0.05: How often is the consumer confidence level in Cyprus at least as positive as in Greece? The variable CY.EL.compare is 1 when this is true, and 0 when this statement is false. Using this information, conduct a test of population proportion, where the null hypothesis is that at least 75% of the time, consumer confidence in Cyprus is as least as positive as in Greece.

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